3D Probabilistic Modelling and Uncertainty Analysis of Glacial and Post-Glacial Deposits of the City of Saguenay, Canada

Knowledge of the stratigraphic architecture and geotechnical properties surficial soil sediments is essential for risk assessment. In Saguenay study area, Quaternary deposits consist a basal till layer heterogeneous post-glacial deposits. Considering setting type heterogeneity, multistep stochastic methodology developed 3D geological modelling quantification associated uncertainties. This adopted regional studies involves geostatistical interpolation simulation methods. Empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) applied to generate bedrock topography map determine thickness their The locally varying mean variance EBK method enable accounting data complexity moderate nonstationarity. Sequential indicator then performed occurrence probability discontinuous (clay, sand gravel) on top layer. individual maps layers uncertainties are generated in probabilistic manner. proposed framework suitable characterised with complex surface subsurface datasets.